A decade after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the country and unleashed turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have examined the political, economic and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners are willing to participate even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, no writer supports unification or the current situation. Each authors two essays that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, assembling financial and social data, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a negligent government minister who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will win here and somebody will in the end lose but each side has has valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
